Without a doubt the MMO market is competetive. Every year sees the release of new games seeking our monthly subscriptions. MMOGchart.com is an excellent source for information (up to 2008) on MMO’s and their subscriber bases. The information also reveals current trends in the market and its consumers.
Over time the industry has grown, from what was once an MMO launched fairly rarely to several launching each year. The number of consumers of MMO games has also grown considerably — with no shortage of help from Blizzard’s World of Warcraft. With an increase in MMOs launched and consumer we can begin seeing some trends.
Early in the MMO industry, with few titles around, consumers were far more forgiving. From the past numbers you can see that Ultima Online and EverQuest both had rising/steady subscription bases till 2004 — the year World of Warcraft launched. I would add EverQuest 2 as part of the reason for a drop in EQ1 subscription base, but the subscriber base dropped off fairly quickly on it — having yet to come close to its previous launch base.
Starting with Anarchy Online it’s possible to see a trend that has become more and more standard — large launch base with quick drop in subscribers. There are very few MMOs that have gone against this trend, or come back from it. EVE Online is an example of this. Starting in 2003 EVE had a small launch base and has grown steadily since. World of Warcraft has also seen steady, albeit massive, growth. The questions to ask while looking at these charts and numbers is — why and what? Why are these MMOs different? What makes them successful? and What determines success?
WoW is not very different from other MMOs, modern and old. You quest, kill mobs, raid, PvP. All standard parts of a traditional MMO and all pioneered years before it. There are a few reasons, I think, that WoW took off so wildly. The first is Blizzard. Blizzard has a substantial fan base — even before WoW. They have well known IPs around the world and had plenty of lore to draw from. People knew WoW before they played it, they knew the world and the characters — it was already familiar. While drawing from existing IPs, Blizzard also drew from existing MMOs. Everything in WoW has pretty much been done before. They simply took the existing information and polished the hell out of it. Using existing elements in a better form was a wonderful move — business-wise — as the players would be familiar with the game instantly. Toning down the new player experience to be as minimally challenging or confusing as possible helped bring in new players not familiar to MMOs. WoW was seen as not being ‘hardcore’ and that opened its doors to casual gamers — a huge market that was untapped at the time by MMOs. To further attract casual gamers WoW used low graphics and supplemented them with greater art. Catering to a low performance system opened the market up further — something EQ2 failed to do and paid the price for using higher end graphics. Probably the biggest breakthrough WoW achieved was its success in the eastern markets — no other western MMO has done that. The9 is the company that’s marketing and holds the licence for WoW in China (or, they did as of my last bit of research) and have done some amazing work selling the game. From the charts in 2008 Asia made up over 5 million subs, more than North America and Europe.
Having a polished and enjoyable game is needed for success. Bugs, lack of content, broken or neglected features and promises all drive consumers away. This can be seen in many previous games. Vanguard, Tabula Rasa, Auto Assault — the list goes on of games that launched with a lack of content, broken content, promised features missing and all of them show a similar trend of having a sharp decline after launch — in the case of Tabula Rasa and Auto Assault, they no longer exist today. Rebounding after a significant loss of subscribers is extremely difficult, nearly impossible it seems. Vanguard is trying and they may be making some head-way.
For me, an MMO’s success is not in the total numbers. They don’t have to gain over 12 million subscribers to be successful. (though it helps) What makes a successful MMO is having player retention and steady gain — as long as the game is growing and improving (community and content-wise) I find it successful.
What are the pitfalls to growth? Lack of updates, lack of fixes, lack of balance, lack of… see a trend? To keep people paying and playing they have to have content to experience. What I find is most MMOs will come out with an expansion every year or two where they can charge more money and increase the content (usually) significantly, while providing ‘free’ content patches every once in awhile to keep the playerbase from dropping like a rock. EVE is a great success, not because of its ease of use or tons of static content, but because of the frequent free expansions that tend to add as much or more than paid expansions. (also, the player generated content in places such as 0.0) I view EVE as the most ‘successful’ MMO currently because it has been able to not only keep players, but grow while adding in tons of content over the years just from subscription costs. EVE is very different from when it launched in 2003, nearly 6 years ago. It is the only MMO that has truly evolved to such a degree.
While EVE is a success, I’d view Warhammer Online as a failure. WAR had many promises early on and many of those were broken. The ‘new’ classes they launched in the past few months were supposed to be in at launch, but they couldn’t get them to ‘feel’ right. That I could see with the dwarf and orc melee classes — as far as I know they completely re-did them. But the Blackguard and Knight that came out last December? Those ‘new’ classes were pretty much the same as their counterparts that already existed. Something else that I felt jipped about. There’s really only half of the classes claimed in the game since each has a ‘twin’ on the other side. While there are minor differences, they’re not much. Apart from the usual lacking the problems were shown literally in the fast drop off of players. If I remember correctly (this isn’t on the charts) WAR launched with roughly 700-750k players, as of early this year that number dropped to roughly 300k. Certainly, 300k is nothing to laugh at — it’s more than my ‘successful’ choice EVE has — but it’s still a drop in over 50% of the subscriber base. Over half of the people that bought WAR stopped playing it. I’m hoping the game will improve itself in the future — and there is plenty of plans for it to do so — but it will take a lot of work to make it ‘successful’.
MMO competition will continue to grow as more companies seek to overthrow the ‘king’ of the subscriber hill. Innovation may take a backseat to familiarity and what has ‘worked’, but that can only last so long. Players will decide what is worth playing, and if they can get that same experience elsewhere, at a better quality, they will. This is something that developers and producers need to understand if the industry is going to improve. Seek not to compete, but to be ‘successful’.